Opinion · October 25, 2026
If a government decision can move a market, the people who know it before everyone else hold something valuable. When the decision concerns war, the stakes are not just a portfolio. They include lives. That combination deserves scrutiny more serious than a congressional performance followed by a quiet return to business.
An open investigation, not a verdict
Reuters reported October 22 that CFTC enforcement director David Miller said the agency’s investigation of suspicious Iran-related oil trading remained open. He also described scrutiny of prediction markets. The report does not establish insider trading by any particular official or trader.
An investigation is precisely when language needs to stay accurate. Suspicious timing is a reason to investigate, not a magic shortcut to proving who knew what. The opposite error would be treating the lack of a final charge as proof there is nothing worth examining.
Follow the information advantage
The central accountability questions are concrete. Who had access to nonpublic information? What controls applied? Were relevant communications and transactions preserved? Can independent reviewers examine the timeline without political interference?
Those are more useful than pointing at a profitable trade and immediately assigning it to whichever villain the audience prefers. Real misconduct should be established by evidence strong enough to survive an adversary’s questions. Real oversight should be able to explain why a suspicious pattern did or did not support further action.
This is not a partisan exception
Rules against abusing public information should apply to everyone with access, including people whose policies we support. Otherwise the principle lasts exactly as long as the other party controls the briefing room.
Citizens should not have to wonder whether a dramatic announcement also served as somebody’s private market signal. We want transparent enforcement, meaningful safeguards and answers that do not vanish when the headlines move. War is already costly enough. A public decision should not include a secret early-access package for the well connected.
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